Joey Keenan ~ November 18, 2024
Reports have surfaced that, in the final days of Joe Biden’s administration, approval has seemingly been granted for Ukrainian forces to use American-made long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). This decision comes in response to multiple escalatory developments in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned the West that permitting Ukraine to utilize long-range weapons to strike targets within Russia would be tantamount to “playing with fire.” He has cautioned that such actions could escalate the current regional conflict into a global one, potentially triggering World War III.
On November 9, 2024, President Putin signed into law a treaty formalizing a strategic partnership with North Korea, which includes a mutual defense provision. This agreement strengthens their alliance amid reports that North Korea has begun supplying Russia with military aid and personnel in support of the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian intelligence has confirmed that North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia near the Ukrainian border, particularly in the Kursk region, to provide logistical and military support. However, the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has been described as disorganized and lacking tactical proficiency. Intercepted communications reveal that Russian soldiers frequently criticize their North Korean allies, and reports suggest that KPA troops have mistakenly attacked Russian forces, highlighting the dysfunction within the partnership and hindering Russia’s efforts in the war.
Meanwhile, Russia has launched one of its largest missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in recent months, targeting critical infrastructure and causing significant civilian casualties. On November 18, strikes on the cities of Odesa and Sumy resulted in the deaths of at least 21 people, including three children, and left over 100 injured, according to Ukrainian officials. Rescue teams evacuated more than 400 residents from affected areas and conducted house-to-house searches to ensure civilian safety. These attacks mark an intensification of hostilities as the conflict continues to devastate Ukrainian cities and civilian life.
The Biden administration’s decision to authorize the use of ATACMS is particularly notable as it comes just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume office. Trump has stated that he intends to bring a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict, creating a sharp contrast with Biden’s approach, which critics argue further escalates tensions. By enabling Ukraine’s use of advanced long-range weaponry, Biden may have set the stage for increased hostilities, leaving his successor to navigate a precarious situation involving the United States and a nuclear-armed Russia.
As President Biden prepares to leave office, the Ukraine conflict remains one of the most volatile international crises since the Cold War. The decision to empower Ukrainian forces with ATACMS adds a new layer of complexity to a war that has already drawn in numerous international players. With alliances like the one between Russia and North Korea taking shape and the potential for miscalculation ever present, the geopolitical landscape grows increasingly fraught. The incoming Trump administration will face immense pressure to balance military strategy with diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation.
